United States well-known think tanks to resolve the Taiwan issue 10 model _ shanghaizhengquanhuiguan

In the Shui-bian insists on launching the "rulian referendum" of a point in time, RAND was made by the DPP administration of a stern warning Herald Article United States well-known think tanks — RAND Corporation recently announced on the network an article entitled "Taiwan status settlement after the u.s.-China relations". This report is the RAND Corporation from United States Air Force commissioned by the United States RAND senior research fellow Dr. Caldwell and policy analyst ruijie David · Shlapak. The report focuses on the analysis of the Taiwan issue resolution process and the resolution of a variety of Sino-US relations, and pointed out that may move toward Taiwan problem solving mode and manner would greatly about the future development of Sino-US relations. Proactive prior assessment today, with the rise of China, China National comprehensive strength increases and growing international presence, the Taiwan issue and the Chinese national final consolidated prospects has become increasingly clear. In the face of the curb trends, know well the strength in international politics, and has always been based on the principle that a typical realism with the principles of the United States foreign policy strategists, not fused Miao, rain will develop resolve Taiwan status issues on the agenda, obviously not only necessary but also has a considerable degree of urgency. The authors report that "with China's military strength and confidence, United States tried to stop the problem solving, China Taiwan will become more difficult." How to maximize the interests of maintaining the United States, in as far as possible, without prejudice to the position of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region and the dignity of a decent settlement of the Taiwan issue, it is this report to discuss core issues and intent. Address the issue of Taiwan's 10 mode the report first on the Taiwan issue is resolved in the short term, the possibility of predicting that at least the next four or five years, the Taiwan question is difficult to solve, the current "no unification" status will remain unchanged. Next, the report focuses on the analysis of the future for an extended period of Taiwan status 10 possible settlement patterns and the effect of Sino-US relations. The author will resolve the Taiwan issue models fall into two broad categories, namely, peaceful solutions and force to settle. These peaceful solutions including the "status quo" and "unity" and "independence" compromise solution "in 4 modes; and force to settle the respective United States intervention and without intervention of a" unified "and" independence "unification", all 6 mode. In this 10 possible mode, the report to the United States, and China's economic and diplomatic relationships and the possibility of war as evaluation criteria. The report considers that, irrespective of the Taiwan issue resolution results, once the resort to force, will result in US-China relations, or even a new cold war, whereas in the United States intervention in cases of cross-strait force uniform, marked the United States in Asian military superiority of the end. For the United States, this is 10 mode in the worst case. On the other hand, regardless of the results of the solution, as long as the procedure is the peace of the US-China relations are still expected to maintain peace and cooperation. The report found that in four peace mode, the mode of peaceful reunification of the Sino-US relations devastating impact, and the United States will remain close economic ties and strong diplomatic cooperation. And "unity" and "independent" or "compromise solution", maintaining the current "no unification" of the situation, resulting in the United States and China, the possibility of a military conflict. The obvious reason is that the "Taiwan independence" forces continues to drive the "legal independence, divisive, contrary to the anti-secession law and raises a series of reactions that led to the United States involved. Interesting implications in United States RAND Corporation as United States well-known think tanks, the United States Government policies have a considerable influence. The RAND Corporation in this military research report commissioned by some of the information disclosed, thought-provoking. In the resolution of the Taiwan status 10 mode, the authors propose United States non-interference conditions force uniform pattern, and assumes a non-interference in the United States. The report finds that if Taiwan has unreasonably provocation continent or in no way entail as a consequence of the US-Taiwan relations, which led to the rupture of the United States help defend Taiwan, decided not to do so, mainland China's Taiwan operations despite reunify is thought to be unpopular, but it is understandable (even inevitable), but in this case, would not give rise to relations of fundamental change. In recent years, Chen Shui-bian's "independence" adventure trail has been subject to United States Government officials and academics of criticism, particularly in the current Chen Shui-bian insists on launching the "rulian referendum", provocative continent, creating cross-strait tensions of a point in time, RAND was raised above point to the DPP administration of a stern warning to the underlying "richer" quite worthy of people's thinking. It is worth noting that the report made it clear that the United States military intervention in the Taiwan issue resolution will not be supported by most countries in the world. The report finds that if the United States as a result of Taiwan issues fall into enmity, Asian countries will be forced to choose sides between China and the United States. However, apart from Japan, Asia, most countries will think that maintaining good relations with China, is far more concerned about China's use of force against "Taiwan independence" is more important. The report also considers that, if the Taiwan issue of hostile action could soon end, then, in addition to the United States, Japan, most countries in the world will quickly return to the trade with China. However, the above conclusions, will be the extent to which the impact of the White House and the Pentagon's Taiwan policy makers and decision makers,Also worthy of observation. Peaceful settlement of favourable Sino-US relations post-cold war United States as the sole superpower in the world today, has been on relations with China. The 21st century, with the rise of China, the United States is to choose a kind of Sino-US relations model, not only for relations between China and the United States, and Asia-Pacific region and the world political situation have a far-reaching impact, while Taiwan problem resolution, will be the model of the most important test. Ke ruijie's rational analysis tell people, regardless of the wishes of the United States, the cross-strait peace Unity mode on Sino-American relations, the impact and influence of the smallest, and most conducive to the further development of Sino-US relations. From the point of view of the medium and long term relationship between the United States, United States in Taiwan's core interests is "peace" resolution of Taiwan issue, whether the result is the "Commission" is the "independence" or "unification". The present and the future for quite some time, the idea of maintaining peace across the Taiwan Straits, in the interests of both sides. The current situation, how to take practical and effective action to stop the Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian Administration promotes destruction of "rulian referendum", "constitutional" and "Taiwan independence" adventure, to maintain peace across the Taiwan Straits, the two countries must first faced and solved in the most realistic and most pressing issues. 【 Author 】 bodong (author of Beijing Taiwan Dean) Li Guang (author of Taiwan Institute of Beijing)