United States of "Taiwan card" will also be playing? _ shanghaizhengquanhuiguan

United States on 4 October announced $ 64.6 billion in arms sales, stirred up China's strong indignation, also makes a lot of concern about the relationship of people by surprise. From the environment, the Bush administration, Sino-American relations from temporary cloudy go to fine-incident Basic has maintained a steady growth trend, and even some foreign media claims that Bush will soon step down as a true friend. Microclimate, the United States at this time the deep financial crisis, China has repeatedly indicated that they would not sit idly by, obviously help United States. Against this background, the United States are still offering the "Taiwan card"? announced its arms sales to Taiwan? is indeed a need to reflect on the issues. United States on arms sales to Taiwan for a long time. Normalization of relations between the United States, the United States in the process has been reluctant to lose Taiwan this card, trying to maintain ties with Taiwan, one of which is to continue to sell weapons to Taiwan and, of course, is not permitted in China. To the United States 1979 established diplomatic relations, the two sides have not yet reached consensus on this issue. Taking into account the overall situation of Sino-US relations, this issue had been shelved, but arms sales very quickly because of the United States towards Taiwan sold FX Series fighters an outbreak, until 1982 after difficult negotiations reached a preliminary settlement, the outcome is the eight · a communique in which "the United States Government declares that it does not pursue a long arms sales to Taiwan's policy to sell weapons to Taiwan in performance and the number will not exceed the Sino-US relations after the last few years supply level, it is ready to gradually reduce it to Taiwan weapons sale, and after a period of time led to a final settlement. "However, the" final solution "for the foreseeable future, although the United States out of the cold war confrontation since the Soviet Union, in the arms sale to maintain a restraint on the issue. But to the end of the cold war, the Bush Administration will be announced in September 1992 to Taiwan to sell value nearly 60 million 150 f-16 fighter jets, arms sales once again become a serious problem in the relationship. Since then, the United States on arms sales to Taiwan despite the ups and downs, but has not been stopped during the important actions including 2000 first announced that AIM to sell a 120 medium-range air-to-air missile, 2 April 2001, sold to Taiwan announced approval including 8 diesel submarines and 4 Kidd class destroyers, value of $ 6 billion of advanced weapons, there is this 64.6 billion in arms sales. These actions regardless of the nature or quantity, are in serious breach of the eight · a communique. United States of "Taiwan card" and of course more than arms sales, but arms sales is one of the most important issues. From nature, directly on arms sales to Taiwan and the United States had been poisoned, cross-strait relationship of mutual trust and deepened the divisions in the Taiwan Strait and the difficulty of the reunification of China, of course, strongly opposed to China. The United States, played the "arms sales card" is to risk failure risk of Sino-US relations, why insist on keeping it? review United States arms sales process, you can see, the problem is with the United States of two-party politics and there is no significant relationship. The size of either the Republican or Democratic Party of Bush, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, have decided to live on arms sales to Taiwan. In addition, the commercial interests of the United States is not a major consideration. Although the number of arms sales to Taiwan, the United States is also impressive from which you want to make a profit, but sometimes it even harder not to make money is to be done. For example, Bush, when he had decided to sell diesel-powered submarine, and the United States itself is not submarine production, United States was willing to risk so uncomplicated and against risk, China was clearly not profit you can explain. So what factors led to the United States arms sales, the most important strategic considerations, it does not want to see the rise of China and smoothly. As a leading world power, the United States has been thinking about how to preserve their "leadership", has maintained a rapid growth rate of China is, of course, the watch object. Of course, this does not say is the United States is set to China to kill and then quickly, and to contact instead of containment of China is also the idea of many United States strategist, but the United States contact limited components inside. United States on China's strategic consideration is, as far as possible the rise of China on the United States to a minimum, in the long term to avoid China replace United States world leadership, from short term to avoid United States forces in China will squeeze out of Asia, this requires the United States should "intervention," "mold," the rise of China and the Taiwan question is the United States "intervention" and "shaping" of one of the best tools in China. It is from this strategic considerations, we would suddenly announced that the United States arms sales to Taiwan without having to come as a surprise: more than 10 years of the Communique ", never let the hands and feet, 1 United States Zifu improvement of Sino-US relations, nor will it allow United States mercifully. China and the strategic decisions the contradiction, Taiwan has always been the United States in the hands of a card, it could soon be playing soon. When you play the hand, just a question of timing and strategy. Of course, have to consider another possibility, namely, the international strategy for the development of the situation is likely over a given period of time masked or desalination Sino-US strategic contradictions, making the United States in Taiwan on maintaining a moderate attitude. For example, why does the United States in 1982 was willing to sign a limited own "Communique", because it was a joint strategy of the Soviet Union, China and balances. Some time ago, the Russia-Georgia conflict led to the West and Russia attitude changes significantly, and some even talk of a new cold war is coming. The present situation, says too early to start new cold war, Russia and the United States is indeed in further highlight the contradictions. Although both sides as South Ossetia caused friction to keep a low profile, but in fact are beginning to reassess its policy on the other. If Russia further restore strength and become strong, the contradiction between Russia and the United States are more than likely, thereby contradicting to United States in Taiwan issue restraint provided a strategic environment. Even strong as United States, it is not possible at the same time and an enemy of Russia, it must select one as the main strategy of the opponent. Of course, the development of us-Russian conflict would be a long-term process, there are many variables, currently clear hope not. However, taking into account the potential of this strategy, we in the United States interference Taiwan issue response should maintain a degree, it is necessary to make the United States feel China's stern attitude, not to push your luck and not overreact, Sino conflicts active referencesRise to conflict over Russia and the United States. This requires policy makers of wisdom and understanding people should give them a greater understanding and time, not because of the national emotion while applying excessive pressure of public opinion. Another influence of the United States on arms sales to Taiwan is actually the factors currently the development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. United States the reasons why the current cross-strait relations constantly improved decision arms sales to Taiwan, a large reason is to remain on the Taiwan issue. In the Shui-bian Taiwan era, although the United States on the ability of Chen Shui-bian's trouble, but scruples on then generally should be the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Because moderate on both sides in a tense situation, the intervention of the United States, the most favourable to the Mainland and the Taiwan two parties and to the United States. But Ma Ying-jeou took office, the implementation of a policy of reconciliation with the Mainland, on United States demand natural decrease, United States strategic advantage is getting lost. But the United States cannot openly expressed opposition, because the peaceful development of cross-strait reconciliation not only of the mainstream of the world, is also in line with the wishes of the majority of people on both sides, the United States cannot say. However, the United States on China's strategic consideration decides it will not progress to stand by the situation in the Taiwan Strait, but do not want to see their own even thrown cross-strait relations, the risk of the development process. Next month, Chen Yunlin, Chairman of the Association is to expand the capacity for the first time to visit Taiwan tour, at the same time, a United States throw arms sales is a careful consideration of strategic decisions, that is the purpose of cross-strait relations. Arms sales on Ma Ying-jeou is a hot potato, as of the Taiwan regional leader, he could not have refused, dump armed arms sales. But if your really into arms sales process, inevitably affects the interaction between the Mainland and mutual trust. Cross-strait relations of mutual trust, United States will have a greater strategic operating space. United States at this time the "potato" thrown out, said a wise decision, its ultimate purpose is to influence cross-strait relations, take back on the Taiwan issue. Considering this factor, we consider to meet United States arms sales to Taiwan, perhaps there should be another new standard or realm, that is, to the development of cross-strait relations as a maximum, a strategy to break the United States. The future of cross-strait relations should be determined by the people on both sides of the collectively to decide, no matter what the external forces, are not allowed to interfere and undermine the peace process in the Taiwan Strait.